The Weather Looks Dim

Back when I was in junior high school, I was responsible for recording daily measurements from our school’s weather station and plugging the data into rather unsophisticated weather prediction models to predict the next three days of local weather. Rarely were the predictions accurate beyond 24 hours. With the availability of massive weather databases, super computers and complex algorithms, scientists are increasingly able to now build complex climate models and predict long-term climate change.

That junior weatherman experience helped lead to my interest in understanding solar energy and renewable energy resources. Little did I know that formative weather prediction experience would contribute to my renewed attention forty years later to climate models and predicting the future of civilization.

On March 26th I wrote about the effect of a not well-known phenomenon called global dimming. I feel compelled to return to the subject because of its importance to understanding the very real global emergency that we face. I do so because others and I believe we have less than a decade to make drastic behavioral changes or we will pass the point of no return for saving civilization, as we know it today.

I described global dimming as the reduction of heat from the sun reaching the earth. Look at the accompanying picture of the effect of ocean going vessel exhaust plumes discharging pollution into the Pacific Ocean. It is a small piece of evidence about the direct effect humans have in dimming the sun.

What is the importance of global dimming? It has masked the actual high rate of global warming. It means we have limited time to change our destructive behavior. By we, I mean me, you, our city governments, park districts, state offices and federal bureaucracies, and the nations of the world. This is not a plea worthy of the annual Chicken Little Award. Rather, it is a plea to ask for your deeper understanding of consequences.

In 2006, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (PBS) provided in its scientifically authoritative TV series, NOVA, a revealing portrait of the cause, history and consequences of global dimming and its relationship with global climate disruption. Excerpts and a transcript of the program are now available online. There is also an excellent teacher’s curriculum guide available for hands-on understanding of weather. Take a few minutes to understand your planet.

Going The Distance

How far can you travel on a gallon of gasoline? For decades the big automakers have thwarted efforts to raise the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standard. They thought they were safe from the winds of change when George W. Bush was elected. They miscalculated and are now, because of their stubborn recalcitrance to improving vehicle fuel efficiency, being told they can expect requirements for significant upgrades to the CAFÉ standards!.

Four factors have caused them to come under the spotlight:

1. A large increase in crude oil and transportation fuel costs


2. The loss of political control in the Senate


3. A miscalculation about their former allies in Congress and the administration, and


4. The awakening of the electorate to the reality of global climate change.

Suddenly before Congress are proposals for cars to achieve 30 to 35 mpg and the trucks to get at least 23 mpg within the next five years. A competing Senate proposal goes further in calling for a 27 mpg rate for trucks in 2011. Dick Durbin (D-IL) has proposed an across-the-board legislation to increase CAFE standards to 35 mpg on both light trucks and cars by model year 2017. Current standards only require an average of 27.2 miles per gallon (MPG) for cars and 21.6 mpg for light trucks.

Meanwhile, an independent fuel economy panel is reported to have concluded that SUVs and trucks can be built with substantially better fuel economy, and that U.S. competitiveness would not be impacted by increasing the standard. Auto companies were shocked with that news. Although the panel did not reach a conclusion as to level of the achievable mileage standard, the report said that existing technologies could add as much as 12-14 mpg to cars and 11-13 mpg to trucks.

The auto manufacturers may have been shocked (hardly), but probably not their network dealer owners that hear complaints on the sales floor that customers want to get better mileage. How big has been the outcry? Consider that Hummer dealers are now offering to perform unauthorized modifications to their new vehicles to boost MPG even though doing so violates their own warranty

So what is the average consumer to do while we wait again for Congress to catch up with the needs of the nation? Buyer options are wide.

» Buy a more fuel efficient vehicle such as the hybrid Toyota Prius. Find and compare cars!
» Drive more efficiently.
» Maintain the existing vehicle for optimum efficiency
» Take fewer trips by consolidating trips.
» Move closer to the user’s typical destinations so as to reduce commute and shopping time and distances traveled.
» Stop using the inefficient automobile and either walk, bike, ride-share or use mass transit whenever available.
» Reduce the weight of the vehicle. This is primarily how auto manufacturers have been improving mpg. They’ve gone to thinner windows, aluminum, magnesium and plastic components, lighter frames, and smaller primary and spare wheels and tires. Drivers can keep their vehicles empty of extraneous junk, including those sand bags and concrete blocks used last winter for improved real wheel traction. For every extra 100 pounds you carry in your vehicle, you reduce gas mileage and fuel economy by roughly 2%.
» Buy or lease a hybrid vehicle.
» Already have a hybrid? Convert it to a 150 mpg plug-in hybrid or wait for the anticipated OEM version.
» Retrofit the vehicle for biodiesel or electric use.

You can make a difference in global warming and save money by using transportation fuels efficiently. Every gallon of gasoline saved cuts emissions of carbon dioxide, the key greenhouse gas, by about 25 pounds.